Latest Yougov polling estimates in Cornwall

Check out Yougov predictions for your constituency>>>

We all want to believe, we all want to hope! And much is being invested in the latest Yougov polling findings which I set out below for Cornish constituencies. Be warned: Yougov poll findings are updated daily and there has already been a significant shift since the weekend. Other polls tell a slightly different story – but all suggest a similar narrowing of the gap between Labour and Conservatives.

 In Cornwall in particular, voting intentions appear to put Labour as the insurgent party, predicted to grab a significantly increased vote share in five out of six constituencies compared to the 2015 election results.

But in the two days left, will it be enough? Right now, it is the Conservatives who are likely to maintain their grip on Cornwall  with the possible exception of St Ives, largely because the non Conservative vote will be split.

In all cases the margin of error in the Yougov data is considerable: using St Ives as an example the Libdem vote could be as low as 33% while the Conservative vote could be as high as 47%. But the mid estimates for St Ives give the Libdems 42% and the Conservatives 40%.

I have set out the current Yougov estimates and in brackets I have given the 2015 Election results together with an indication as to whether this was up or down compared to the  2010 election. All figures are in percentages.

St Ives

Predicted by Yougov as a Tossup

Libdem: between 33 and 51% of the vote (2015 election: 33% of vote, a fall of 9.5% of the vote from 2010 election)
 
Conservates: between 34 and 47% of the vote (2015 election: 38% of vote, a fall of 1% from 2010 election)
Labour: between 12 and 25% of the vote (2015 election: 9%, increase of 1% from 2010 election)

St_Iveswebsite

Camborne and Redruth

Predicted by YouGov as a lean Conservative win

Conservatives: between 41 and 53 percent of vote (2015 election: 40% of vote, an increase of 3% of the vote from 2010 election)
Labour: between 34 and 49 percent of the vote (2015 election: 25% of vote, a 9% increase from 2010 election)
Libdem: between 4 and 15 percent of the vote (2015 election: 12% of vote, a decrease of 25%)

CamborneRedruth

Truro and Falmouth

Described by Yougov as Likely Conservative win

Conservatives: between 35 and 48 percent of vote (2015 election: 44% of vote, an increase of 3% of the vote from 2010 election)
Labour: between 24 and 39 percent of the vote (2015 election: 15% of vote, an increase of 6% of the vote from 2010 election)
Libdem: between 14 and 27 percent of the vote (2015 election: 17% of vote, a decrease of 24% of the vote from 2010 election)
UKIP: between 2 and 7 percent of the vote (2015 election: 12% of vote, an increase of 8% of the vote from 2010 election)
Green: between 1 and 6 percent of the vote (2015 election: 9% of vote, an increase of 7%)

Truro_and_Falmouth_webready

St Austell and Newquay

Predicted as Safe Conservative

Conservatives: between 45 and 59 percent of vote (2015 election: 40% of vote, a rise of less than 1% of the vote from 2010 election)
Liberal Democrats: between 18 and 34 percent (2015 election: 24%, a fall of 19% from 2010 election)
Labour: between 16 and 30 percent (2015 election: Labour got 10%, a rise of 3% from 2010 election)

StAustell-Newquay_webready

 

North Cornwall

Predicted by Yougov as a Lean Conservative

Conservatives: between 35 and 49 percent of vote (2015 election: 45% of vote, a rise 3% of the vote from 2010 election)
Liberal Democrats: between 28 and 46 percent (2015 election: 31%, a fall of 17% from 2010 election)
Labour: between 12 and 26 percent (2015 election: Labour got 5%, a rise of 1% from 2010 election)

NCornwall_webready

South East Cornwall

Predicted by Yougov as a Safe Conservative

Conservatives: between 46 and 59 percent of vote (2015 election: 51% of vote, a rise 5% of the vote from 2010 election)

Labour: between 17 and 31 percent (2015 election: Labour got 9%, a rise of 2% from 2010 election)

Liberal Democrats: between 16 and 28 percent (2015 election: 17%, a fall of 22% from 2010 election)
Greens: between 1 and 5 percent (2015 election: 5%, a rise of 4% from 2010 election)

SECornwall_webready.png

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