Breakdown of votes in Cornish constituencies in 2015 election

please note: the breakdown of votes below carries  a voter health warning: it cannot be used as a predictive tool but it does give some idea of what is possible

Tactical voting and talk of a progressive alliance across the country grows louder and louder by the day, even as  centre-left party leaders repeatedly reject any such proposal. From leafy Surrey – where local Labour have openly challenged their party’s stance  – to Brighton and Hove, Lewes and Eastbourne, South Devon, London, Oxford and further north, a new kind of politics is gathering pace.

And let’s not forget Cornwall! At the recent Owen Jones event, A packed Hall For Cornwall (capacity 940)  was asked whether they supported a progressive alliance. A sea of hands went up. When asked for a show of  hands against, I counted roughly ten hands. The idea of a  progressive alliance was  raised by a member of the audience who was a Labour voter  – and the most vocal rejection of this idea also happened to come from  a Labour member in the audience.

People who once rejected out of hand any possibility of an alliance or voting tactically are now re-considering their options – publicly on Twitter, on Facebook – sharing their angst, their fear of the future, their regret at being pushed into a voting corner. And in the other corner are committed party activists who express anger and dismay at the ‘betrayal’ implied by any progressive alliance. Wherever we stand on this, let us at least acknowledge to each other the hurt and pain that all this is causing. At the end of the day every one of us actually wants the best for their party.

Most if not all of us  would rather vote out of principle and party allegiance but know this:  our present electoral system doesn’t give  a damn about your principles!

It is  outdated and incapable of reflecting modern day plural politics: vote Labour get Tory, vote Liberal Democrat get Tory, vote Green and you may still get Tory. It all depends where you live and how the centre-left vote is split. It is broken and needs to be replaced by Proportional Representation.

In Cornwall we know all about that: six Tory MP’s based on only 43 percent of the vote -30 percent when you include non voters. In my own constituency of Truro and Falmouth there were nine candidates standing for election; the split vote helped the Tory candidate win comfortably.

Let’s not forget too, the threat of a ‘regressive alliance’. Conservatives and UKIP have no compunction over forming local alliances, no agonising over principle or party allegiance, none of the tribalism that dogs the centre – left. In many ways they are ahead of the game.

If the polls are right we have a mountain to climb. But we have no option: throw everything at this, use every means at your disposal from social media and email to face to face conversations (by far the most powerful). Reach out to others, reason with them, engage them and persuade them to vote tactically for a progressive candidate.

Here is a breakdown  of votes at the last election. It is done in pie charts to make it easier to see who the strongest progressive party was in each constituency at the 2015 election. Bear in mind this cannot be used as a predictive tool and the Tories are riding high in the polls. Nevertheless use it to make a judgement as to who is the most likely to beat them this time. You know what to do to stop that!

St Ives Constituency

StIves

Camborne and Redruth

Camborne_Redruth

Truro and Falmouth

Truro

St Austell and Newquay

StAustell

North Cornwall

NCornwall

South East Cornwall

SECornwall

Reminder: 

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15 thoughts on “Breakdown of votes in Cornish constituencies in 2015 election

  1. A progressive alliance is a progressive way for Lib Dems to get into bed with Tories and form an artificial majority. I may be old but I have a memory.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Fantastic work Gavin. I hope this takes us to a place where we can vote against the Tories, get PR and vote Green next time.

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  3. Concerned that using just the last election’s results cold be misleading. There was a major backlash against the Lib Dems so for example in Truro/Falmouth it looks like Labour is well worth a vote. I believe this is largely due to a Lib Dem loss rather than a labour gain though. I would be interested in other’s thoughts and what this analysis would look like if it included the 2010 election results.

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    1. In 1992 Seb Coe stood for Falmouth and the consensus was thay=t not many wanted him and would tactically vote to keep him out. The outcome was 15,000 Labour, 15,000 Libs, 16,000 Tory.
      30,000 said no, 16,000 said yes and he got in.
      Bloody funny democracy to my mind!

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  4. The nation rejected PR in a referendum in 2011.
    Also in all the seats above Tory UKIP polled more than 50% combined .
    Plus Cornwall voted to Leave.
    Not the fertile ground one would hope

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  5. The Tories want to change the constituency boundaries AGAIN. Their plan would ensure conservatives would gain many seats. However the snap election has meant that this can’t happen for this election. This is therefore our last chance to defeat the Tories and have a less harsh BREXIT agreement. It is essential that the smaller parties work together to achieve their defeat.

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  6. Above all else, at some time in the next election or two, we must get a government that wants to fix the broken voting system. Cameron, the leader for the disastrous Brexit gamble, was elected opposed by 63% of those who voted, not counting those who “couldn’t be bothered” to vote.
    We should have proportional representation and compulsory voting for the next general election.
    For those not convinced, in Scotland if I want to write to a representative about an environmental issue, I can write to regional Green MSPs, if it’s a general policy issue to Labour, Tory or LibDem MSPs. If you live in a constituency with the wrong flavour of UK MP, you’re out of luck, parliamentary rules prevent more sympathetic MPs raising your issue in Parliament.
    Time for change.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I am really sorry i dont really get this. I take it its all about getting rid of the Conservatives and yet more people voted for the Conservatives than any other one single party. Am i right in thinking that on here if you dont vote conservative you should vote for well you dont actually say what you should do. I havent read a single thing on here that actually tells me the reason for this accept that people dont like the results so well we will change it exactly like the referendum we as a mojority voted out of europe doesnt make it right or wrong its what people thought.
    Please can someone explain what the actual point of this is…. i am very very interested.

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    1. Hello Jeremy, sorry if we are not clear. That is partly deliberate! Our efforts at forming a cross party alliance were at a very early stage and we never got to the point where parties could sit down and discuss how they might co-operate with each other and come up with a recommended candidate. That is a much longer and more difficult process and Theresa May deliberately called an early general election while the polls suggested she was running high.

      All we can do now is share back to people how the vote went in 2015 and encourage them to vote tactically. In many cases the centre-left vote(Labour, Libdem, Green, MK) was split allowing the Tories to win on a minority of votes.If you look at the breakdown, most people did not vote Conservative. Only in South East Cornwall did the Conservatives get a straight majority – 51% of the vote.

      Basically we have an outdated and broken election system that cannot cope with today’s mult-party politics. This means that millions of votes are wasted. We need Proportional Representation to replace our present First-Past-The-Post system, so that no vote is wasted and I think the Referendum was a lesson in how real democracy could function if we ensured that every vote mattered and no vote was wasted.

      The only encouragement I can give is to vote tactically i.e. vote for the centre-left party you think is most likely to dislodge the Conservatives. Many in Labour will say that the 2015 election bears no relation to what is happening on the ground now. They will point out that the Cornwall Live poll showed a strongly resurgent Labour. They will also argue that tactical voting is a betrayal of principle (as would Libdems to be honest) but I would argue back that we have a broken election system that is incapable of reflecting people’s principles and party loyalty. It all ends in a split vote – letting the Conservatives back in! Sorry if this is not helpful. Bottom line: use your own judgement and strike a balance between tactical voting and voting on principle

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